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Weekly Outlook for Week of July 11 – 15th

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair ambled sideways last week, though the overall bias remains bearish. There are support lines at 1.0000, 1.0950 and 1.0900, but the support line at 1.1000 is a formidable barrier – should price breach it, the support lines below could easily be tested. There are also resistance lines at 1.1150, 1.1200 and 1.1250 that could be tested when bulls become strong enough to effect a short-term rally. The outlook is bearish for this month, but that does not rule out bullish attempts this week.

Dominant bias: Bullish
Further gains were made last week as bulls managed to push price above the support level at 0.9800 (which used to be an obstacle for them). Price then moved towards the resistance level at 0.9850, which has already been tested. There are two threats to the current bullish outlook: 1). CHF could become strong any time this month. 2). USD may become weak before the end of this week, but until one of these two threats materializes, price will continue trudging upwards.

Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair is still in a major downtrend. Price dropped 460 pips last week – reaching a low of 1.2796 before closing at 1.2951. The market went sideways during the last few days of the week, and this week brings a high probability of trending upwards (which may also affect some other GBP pairs), though it is very unlikely that price will reach the high of June 23 anytime soon. This means that, while there could be a rally, the dominant bias will remain bearish.

Dominant bias: Bearish
Price dropped more than 250 pips last week and closed at 100.56 on Friday. The outlook on this and other JPY pairs remains bearish. Price could trend further downwards as it hunts the demand levels at 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00, but the initial task is to break below the demand level at 100.00, after which it will be easier to reach the other demand levels. Any rallies should be ignored.

Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent “sell” signal is still valid as there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market as price declined another 330 pips between Monday and Wednesday then consolidated until the end of the week. As with other JPY pairs, further decline is expected, so any rallies are essentially opportunities to seek short trades as there are intriguing demand zones at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50