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Weekly Outlook for Week of Jan. 3-6, 2017

Here is the market outlook for this week:

Dominant bias: Bearish
After moving sideways from Monday to Wednesday, price started upwards on Wednesday to top-out at 1.0653, and then retraced on Friday. In spite of the climb, the outlook remains bearish and price has already begun to descend – possibly reaching the support lines at 1.0450, 1.0400 and 1.0350 this week. A dependable bullish signal would need price to stay above the resistance line at 1.0600.

Dominant bias: Bullish
An attempt to climb occurred from December 26 to 28, but was rejected, and price started to nose-dive on December 28 – a bearish move of 250 pips from the high which led to a bounce of 140 pips after the low of December 30. Up-moves may continue this week as price targets the resistance levels at 1.0300, 1.0350 and 1.0400. There cannot be a valid bearish outlook while price holds above the psychological level at 1.0000, and that would require heavy selling pressure.

Dominant bias: Bearish
Price dropped from Monday to Wednesday then rallied 170 pips from Wednesday to Friday. That “rally in the context of a downtrend” has not diminished the possibility of a strong bearish move this week that might reach the accumulation territories at 1.2200, 1.2100 and 1.2000 (those are the targets for this week owing to the prevalent Bearish Confirmation Pattern).

Dominant bias: Neutral
The last two weeks have been a consolidation – oscillating between the supply level at 118.00 and the demand level at 116.00. The consolidation will continue until either the supply or demand level is broken (probably by the end of this week or early next), and resulting in a strong directional movement that will most likely be downward.

Dominant bias: Neutral
As with USDJPY, consolidation has marked the past two weeks. The market is quite choppy, but a strong directional move is expected soon. A closer look at the market suggests that pushing price up is the intention – something that will only be achieved when the Euro gains enough strength. Immediate supply zones are located at 123.50 and 124.00; and demand zones are at 122.00 and 121.00.