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Weekly Outlook for Week of Aug. 29th – Sept. 2nd

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

Dominant bias: Bullish
The bias is now precariously bullish. Price dropped 120 pips on Friday in the context of a weak uptrend. Movement below the support line at 1.1100 will result in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern, whilst movement above the resistance line at 1.1350 will strengthen the ongoing bullish bias – this week will determine which it is.

Dominant bias: Bearish
As suggested last weekend, short-term weakness in CHF (which was weak versus other majors as well) coupled with the noticeable bullishness of EURUSD was able to cause this pair to rally 170 pips last week. USD also became strong in its own right – especially on Friday, so price should continue going up as long as the factors mentioned remain. This may result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern forming; otherwise there will be a serious pullback.

Dominant bias: Bullish
The outlook is bullish in the short-term and bearish in the long-term. Price climbed 200 pips last week and tested the distribution territory at 1.3250 before experiencing a pullback on Friday. However, the short-term bias remains bullish – provided that price remains above the accumulation territories at 1.3000 and 1.2950. GBP pairs will undergo high volatility in September – contrasting the lower volatility witnessed this month.

Dominant bias: Neutral
This pair is neutral in the short-term, but bearish in the longer-term. It experienced a very tight consolidation between Monday and Thursday, only to break upwards on Friday, but the move will not invalidate the neutral bias unless price gets above the supply levels at 103.00 and 103.50. There is also the possibility of a pullback to the demand levels at 101.00 and 100.50 as the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for September.

Dominant bias: Neutral
This cross is also neutral in the near-term and bearish in the long-term, having been moving sideways for the past three weeks while the trend on higher timeframes remains bearish. The bullish breakout that occurred on Friday will constitute a false break if price fails to keep moving north and, since the outlook remains bearish for JPY pairs, a pullback into the demand zone at 113.00 is possible (though strong selling pressure would be needed to breach it).