May 29, 2014
“Bears” still affect the Euro: as expected the bounce in the main pair wasn’t long, giving investors just a day of rest. In the middle of the week sellers came back with new energy, which was supported well by statistics.
Job market in Germany didn’t encourage with its reports. Unemployment level in May remained at 6.7% on the minimum level in the long run, but components of that release didn’t inspire much. The amount of Germans without permanent employment grew this month by 23.9K up to 2.905 million. Economists forecast implied downgrade of the figure by 11 thousand. There is no surprise that growth dynamics in Western Germany exceeds twice the one in Eastern.
On the one hand it can be explained by weather conditions in the end of winter – beginning of spring this year, though demand on seasonal working places remains even. On the other hand, that might be the echoes of unequal recovery of German economy in principle.
As a reminder Germany’s GDP in the first quarter increased by 0.8%. Coming back to the EUR/USD it is important to emphasize that the advantage is still on the side of seller.
The Euro is now below the lower boundary at 1.3615. Nevertheless the breach was not abrupt. Therefore the conclusion here is that the bearish trend remains intact and will most likely continue, though the decline will be smooth.
As for that pair there is not much new here. It continues to go down from 102.00. There might be some support at 101.42. Other than that the outlook is bearish.
The Pound is beneath support. Now we see some correction of the downward trend, but nevertheless the forecast for the Pound at least in the near term is bearish.
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00:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
01:30 AUD Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ)
07:00 EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ)
12:30 CAD Current Account
12:30 USD FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks
12:30 USD GDP (QoQ)
12:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ)
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)
22:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM)
23:30 JPY Household Spending (YoY)
23:30 JPY National Core CPI (YoY)
23:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)
23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM)