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Market Review July 10, 2014

July 10, 2014
 

The Euro again and again finds ways to appreciate further up at the empty macroeconomic calendar and against calm background. Trading volumes of the asset are still lower than average, but the fact is that this week the Euro is up.

 

Recently issued protocol of the last Fed meeting has confirmed again intentions of the regulator to keep rates low for a long time. Here everything is clear: GDP data on the USA in the first quarter turned out to be too weak for pretending, that things are great in the economy. Explanations of the fall by 2.9% in June-March of 2014 by too cold winter do not work anymore: winter occurs every year in the USA, but not every time it brings with itself such a stress to the economy. There is a clear correlation between QE3 volumes contraction, even taking to account the fact that money wasn’t injected in the economy directly, and downgrade of economic growth pace. 

 

By the way it is not ruled out that at the meeting in July-August the FRs will decide to stop reduction of the QE3 volumes. It will be an additional stress for the Dollar.

 

Today a lot of investors are waiting for weekly report on Initial Jobless Claims. Here no surprises are anticipated, so it is not likely that the pair will demonstrate a splash of activity after the release. Currently the Euro intends to move on further up gradually.

  

 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

 

EURUSD

As has been mentioned in the fundamental overview, the Euro is in high spirits. It has been going up steadily since July 7. At the moment there are no serious obstacles seen on its way and the bias is bullish.

 

USDJPY

 The pair continues to go down, but it hasn’t met resistance yet on the downside at 101.25. If it doesn’t stop the decline, the bearish trend will extend as far as below 101.

 

GBPUSD

The Pound continues consolidation fluctuating within a quite broad range. Supposedly it has to break above the upper boundary in order to continue previous trend. It might also fall below the lower boundary, what will suggest a trend reversal.

  

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

 

01:30    AUD  Employment Change 

01:30    AUD  Full Employment Change 

01:30    AUD  Unemployment Rate 

02:00    CNY  Chinese Exports (YoY) 

02:00    CNY  Chinese Imports (YoY) 

02:00    CNY  Chinese Trade Balance   

05:00    IDR  Indonesia Interest Rate Decision 

06:45    EUR  French CPI (MoM)   

06:45    EUR  French HICP (MoM) 

08:00    EUR  ECB Monthly Report              

08:30    GBP  Trade Balance 

11:00    GBP  BoE QE Total      

11:00    GBP  Interest Rate Decision    

12:30    CAD  New Housing Price Index (MoM)      

12:30    USD  Initial Jobless Claims